A stock tripled in two weeks. Why?
Eurohold Bulgaria went from €1.28 to €4.30 in two weeks and carried the SOFIX past its 2007 record. It is exactly the situation where a single confident answer is least useful, because the same filings support very different stories.
The CEEWire AI agent researched the company and wrote nine sourced notes covering its business, debt, ownership, cash flow and valuation. We built two opposing views from those notes, their sources and the filings behind them. Follow the guided tour, or switch to the full article at any time.
Same fact, two readings
Both views start from the same facts. They differ in what those facts mean. Switch perspective, open a fact to see its sources, and read the full argument where you want more depth.
Critical
The register has concentrated quickly. A 30 June snapshot put Starcom Holding at 70.16%, which would imply a float near 30%. That figure is out of date. Starcom reported crossing 75% and then 80% in late September, reaching 420.3m shares, or 80.69%, on 1 October. SLS Holding then went from 5.10% to 10.06%, settled on 21 October.
That leaves about 48.2m shares, or €207m at Friday's close. The real tradable pool looks smaller. At the 12 October EGM, Arkont Invest registered 26.0m shares and the Budeshte pension funds registered 13.7m of their own. Arkont is not a passive outsider either: it lent Solars €5m in 2025, in a loan later assigned to Starcom. If those holders are unchanged, about 8.5m shares, or 1.6% of the company, remain. Individuals as a group held just 0.70% in June. This is an estimate, because the holdings carry different dates.
On Friday, fewer than 400,000 shares changed hands, which is at most about €1.6m of stock. Those trades repriced the whole company by €844m. Each euro traded moved market value by roughly €500. A market cap set that way tells you the marginal price of a small number of shares. It says little about what €2.24bn of buyers would pay.
The tape was thin before the rally too, and the controlling shareholder was much of it. On 29 September Starcom reported buying 5,052,000 shares, against 5,052,339 in our volume data for the day. On 30 September its three on-market purchases were 114,541 of 115,841 shares, or 98.9%. SLS added about 25.8m shares between 21 July and 21 October, more than the 19.3m of volume in our data for that period, so some of it probably moved off the order book.
Since mid-May, Eurohold has published 46 repo transactions in which Starcom sold shares with an agreement to buy them back. They total 96.0m shares and about €72.9m, though that count includes rollovers. About 53.0m shares, or roughly 10% of the company, sit in repos due after 30 October, at an average price of €0.75. The EGM minutes show who holds some of them: Universal Pension Fund Future voted 11.0m shares on Starcom's instructions and 4.6m on SLS's, each "with regard to a repo transaction".
Repos are a legal and common way to finance a position. The relevant fact for outside investors is that part of the controlling stake is financed against the stock, and that a share of the register moves between friendly hands without being for sale. One notice, for 9 October, shows a sale at €0.80 and a buy-back at €1.825. That looks like a typing error, and we excluded it from any rate calculation.
Constructive
Before the rally, the numbers gave Solars no credit for earnings at all.
At €1.28 investors paid about 13× trailing earnings and about 1.4× book for the country's largest electricity distributor and supplier, with Solars' debt counted in full and its earnings counted at zero. Then consider what insiders did. In June, Starcom put in most of €266.3m of cash at €1.0226 a share. In late September it was buying in the market at about €1.27 to €1.28 and took a 14.05m-share block at a reported 1.628. The notice prints these prices in leva, but they match the euro tape, which would put the block above the market. SLS Holding more than tripled its holding, from 16.6m shares in June to 52.4m by 21 October. These holders added to their stakes before the price moved.
Critical
Most coverage quotes a market cap of €2.24bn on 520.94m shares. It leaves out the warrants. In September and October Eurohold sold 520.94m warrants at €0.01 each. Every two warrants buy three new shares at €1.25, for ten years. The prospectus spells out the result: up to 781.41m new shares, taking the total to 1,302.35m. A holder who doesn't take part falls to 40% of their previous stake.
The 2:3 ratio is easy to miss, and it matters. At €4.30, all those shares would make an equity value of €5.6bn. If today's market cap is the right value for the company as it stands, adding the €977m of exercise cash and spreading it over 1.30bn shares gives a warrant-adjusted price of €2.47.
The warrant market itself disagrees with the share price. EUBGW closed at €2.80. Conversion at €4.30 is worth €4.58 a warrant, so the warrant trades 39% below that value. The price implies a share value of about €3.12. On 20 October, when 13.0m warrants traded at €0.235, the same calculation gave €1.41, almost exactly the share close. That gap opened in the last ten days. Part of it has an innocent explanation: warrants trade thinly and can only be exercised when the board calls a capital increase. It is still a clear signal that two linked instruments are saying different things.
The issue was a rights offering, so every shareholder could take part, and that matters for fairness. In practice Starcom took at least 391.7m warrants, or 75.2%, for about €3.9m. At €4.30 they have conversion value of about €1.8bn, or about €1.1bn at the warrant's own market price. Starcom also took 260.1m of the shares issued in June at €1.0226, a paper gain of about €850m. Separately, the October EGM approved warrants for staff and board members over 3% of capital at a €0.01 issue price and a €0.51 strike, worth about €59m at Friday's close if fully used.
Constructive
Headline debt rose 59.3% to €1.196bn because of Solars, and that number gets the attention. The structure improved at the same time.
The 13.5% rate on that parent facility is expensive, and it is the one that should be refinanced first. The warrants are the obvious way to do that.
The market usually treats warrants as pure dilution, and they are dilutive. They are also ten years of pre-agreed equity at €1.25. With the stock at €4.30, exercise is deep in the money, and the prospectus's stated priority for these funds is to reduce debt. The new shares come in above book value, which the prospectus calculates would raise standalone book per share by 22.35%. Asen Hristov has said the company will invite holders to convert. Eurohold has moved from needing capital to choosing when to take it.
Critical
Solars Energy is the honest answer to all this, because its debt is in these numbers and its earnings are not. So how much would it need to earn? To bring EV down to 10× EBITDA, the group needs about €370m. At 8× it needs €462m. That means Solars and any growth must add €219m to €311m on top of €151m of trailing electricity EBITDA. The full 2025 group, insurance included, made about €193m. Even the official forecast for Solars, with every project built and counted at 100%, would take the group only to about €308m.
Eurohold has not yet reported any Solars earnings. The only official numbers are a forecast in the valuation commissioned ahead of the swap with Starcom, which assumes €80/MWh for solar, €180/MWh for battery discharge and all 1,005 MWp running from year one. The assets are large: about 487 MWp of solar and 377 MW / 894 MWh of storage were in operation in June, by our count of the H1 report. But Bulgarian battery capacity has gone from about 200 MWh to about 14 GWh in two years, and arbitrage margins may narrow as more batteries compete. The accounting is provisional too. Solars brought €1,013m of PP&E and €562m of intangibles onto the balance sheet, against a swap valued at €387–389m for 100% of the company. The €401m of minority interests is mostly new as well, and much of Solars' portfolio sits in partly owned structures.
Constructive
This is the centre of the case. Eurohold's H1 results exclude Solars' revenue, profit and cash flow, because the acquisition was dated 30 June for accounting purposes. Its debt and assets are included. Every leverage ratio published so far therefore has the debt without the earnings, and the first consolidated report that includes Solars should show a different group.
The official valuation commissioned for the swap with Starcom goes further. It covers 1,005 MWp and 1,205 MWh, including 195 MWp in development, and forecasts first-year EBITDA of about €157m once everything runs. That is a forecast, not a result, but it is a far larger earnings base than anything now visible in the accounts.
The market context supports the platform. Bulgarian midday prices can fall below zero while evening prices reach about €250/MWh, and Electrohold itself estimates that more than 1 TWh of solar power went unused in 2025 for lack of storage. Few competitors can pair generation, storage, supply and trading under one roof. Electrohold Trade also has a route to market, with a 2.9 GWh storage and solar pool built with The Mobility House Energy. The risk is real: batteries are being added quickly and spreads may narrow. Early, large and integrated is still the best place to be in that race.
Critical
The Frankfurt plan is real news, and better access to investors has value. It does not change what the group earns. The last consolidated results are still for the six months to June. Headline EBITDA fell 9.2% to €98.5m, although the electricity group's own EBITDA rose to €85.4m from €67.2m. Neither figure supports a price more than three times higher.
The same business was on about 14× trailing electricity EBITDA at €1.28 and is on about 24× now. Romania's Electrica, the closest listed comparison, is on about 9×. Today's market cap is about 43× trailing owners' profit.
Constructive
Eurohold bought CEZ's Bulgarian businesses for €335m in 2021. Today Electrohold has more than 3,000 employees and serves 3m customers. It distributes, supplies and trades power, and the distribution business gives the group a regulated base.
Two H1 blemishes need context. Headline EBITDA fell 9.2% to €98.5m, with other operating costs rising to €24.4m from €5.6m, but the electricity group's own accounts show EBITDA up 27%. Operating cash flow was −€75.6m, but a €214.1m outflow in payables drove that swing, compared with +€138.1m a year earlier. Working-capital moves like that tend to reverse, and the next report will show whether this one does.
Critical
The October EGM removed four Supervisory Board members, including Kustaa Aima and Louis Gabriel Roman, and elected Starcom Holding itself to the board. Two weeks earlier, Starcom had reported buying exactly 14,054,373 shares at 1.628. That is the same number KJK Fund II reported holding in June. The filing names no seller, so the link is our inference. The notice prints the price in leva, but other lines in it match the euro tape. If it was €1.628, the block priced about 27% above the market that day, a premium other holders were not offered.
Constructive
The October sequence matters more than its timing suggests. The EGM on 12 October tabled delisting from the public register. Not one share voted for it. Every non-Starcom holder present, 79.15m shares including SLS, the Budeshte pension funds and Arkont Invest, voted against. Starcom abstained on 354.9m shares rather than impose it. Kiril Boshov had said in August that minorities would be heard but that delisting was not an aim of the majority holders, and Hristov confirmed after the vote that Eurohold stays on the BSE.
Fifteen days later the company went the other way entirely. On 28 October it began admitting all 520.94m shares to the Prime Standard, Frankfurt's highest segment, and on 29 October it applied to move to the BSE's EuroBridge segment, built with Deutsche Börse for simultaneous trading. Hristov expects the shares in Frankfurt within about a month. On 13 October the shares fell 17.6%, as the delisting vote failed and the new warrants began trading. Two weeks later the stock was heading for one of Europe's largest equity markets.
The backdrop helps. Bulgaria joined the euro in January, removing currency risk for euro investors. Schneider Electric's roughly €1.2bn offer for Shelly Group showed global strategic buyers are willing to pay for Bulgarian assets. The SOFIX is reported to be up nearly 90% in a year, and capital has also moved into Sopharma, Doverie and First Investment Bank, so Eurohold is not rising alone.
The valuation both sides share
Arguments only go so far, so both views share one valuation. It uses a discounted cash flow, regional peers and a sum of the parts, and it treats the warrants as exercised when they are in the money. Our middle case lands near the pre-rally price, and no method in any scenario reaches €4.30.
This layer doesn't change with your perspective. Change the scenario instead.
810 MWp · solar €66 · discharge €150 · electricity discount rate 8.5%
| Discounted cash flow | €1.23 |
| Peer multiples | €1.39 |
| Sum of the parts | €1.08 |
| Average per share, after warrants | €1.23 |
What made this possible
The two views are only as good as the evidence underneath them. CEEWire turns regulatory filings into structured data that agents can read. The agent then researched Eurohold and wrote its notes, with each claim tied to a source.
We used those notes as the starting point, followed their sources back to the filings, and built the two views and the valuation on top.
The sources stay attached all the way through, so a reader can check either side.
Run this on a company you follow →Not investment advice. Figures come from company filings and the sources listed in the full article.
Eurohold at €4.30: a €2.2bn price set on a sliver of the shares
The stock more than tripled in two weeks and carried the SOFIX to a record. The company did get better in 2026. The filings just don't show enough to justify this price, and they show far more shares on the way.
Eurohold Bulgaria closed at €1.28 on 15 October and €4.30 on 30 October. It rose 135% last week and 60.4% on Friday, which added about €844m of market value in one session. The SOFIX passed its 2007 peak on the back of that move, with a reported close near 2,120 points.6
Our view is that the business improved this year, but that the price is a poor measure of how much. Four arguments carry that view, each from the record: very few shares are setting the price, the headline market cap ignores 781m warrant shares, the valuation depends on earnings nobody has reported yet, and the value created so far has flowed mainly to the controlling shareholder.
What actually changed in two weeks
Start with the news flow. A move of this size usually has a reason you can point to in the numbers.
| Date | Event | New earnings data? |
|---|---|---|
| 12–13 Oct | EGM rejects delisting. The new EUBGW warrants start trading. Shares fall 17.6% to €1.31. | No |
| 20 Oct | Starcom repos 16.1m shares for 10 days at €0.932. 13.0m warrants trade at €0.235. | No |
| 21 Oct | SLS Holding's stake passes 10% on settlement. | No |
| 26 Oct | Management Board member Razvan Lefter resigns. | No |
| 28–29 Oct | Frankfurt Prime Standard procedure starts. EuroBridge application filed. No listing date, and the required agreements were still to be signed. | No |
| 30 Oct | Nine-month report, parent only: €1.68m profit, €0.25m cash. | Parent only |
The Frankfurt plan is real news, and better access to investors has value. It does not change what the group earns. The last consolidated results are still for the six months to June. Headline EBITDA fell 9.2% to €98.5m, although the electricity group's own EBITDA rose to €85.4m from €67.2m.2 Neither figure supports a price more than three times higher.
1. Very few shares are setting the price
The register has concentrated quickly. A 30 June snapshot put Starcom Holding at 70.16%, which would imply a float near 30%. That figure is out of date. Starcom reported crossing 75% and then 80% in late September, reaching 420.3m shares, or 80.69%, on 1 October. SLS Holding then went from 5.10% to 10.06%, settled on 21 October.1
That leaves about 48.2m shares, or €207m at Friday's close. The real tradable pool looks smaller. At the 12 October EGM, Arkont Invest registered 26.0m shares and the Budeshte pension funds registered 13.7m of their own.1 Arkont is not a passive outsider either: it lent Solars €5m in 2025, in a loan later assigned to Starcom.1 If those holders are unchanged, about 8.5m shares, or 1.6% of the company, remain. Individuals as a group held just 0.70% in June.2 This is an estimate, because the holdings carry different dates.
On Friday, fewer than 400,000 shares changed hands, which is at most about €1.6m of stock.4,5 Those trades repriced the whole company by €844m. Each euro traded moved market value by roughly €500. A market cap set that way tells you the marginal price of a small number of shares. It says little about what €2.24bn of buyers would pay.
The tape was thin before the rally too, and the controlling shareholder was much of it. On 29 September Starcom reported buying 5,052,000 shares, against 5,052,339 in our volume data for the day. On 30 September its three on-market purchases were 114,541 of 115,841 shares, or 98.9%.1,4 SLS added about 25.8m shares between 21 July and 21 October, more than the 19.3m of volume in our data for that period, so some of it probably moved off the order book.
Shares used as collateral
Since mid-May, Eurohold has published 46 repo transactions in which Starcom sold shares with an agreement to buy them back. They total 96.0m shares and about €72.9m, though that count includes rollovers. About 53.0m shares, or roughly 10% of the company, sit in repos due after 30 October, at an average price of €0.75.1 The EGM minutes show who holds some of them: Universal Pension Fund Future voted 11.0m shares on Starcom's instructions and 4.6m on SLS's, each "with regard to a repo transaction".1
Repos are a legal and common way to finance a position. The relevant fact for outside investors is that part of the controlling stake is financed against the stock, and that a share of the register moves between friendly hands without being for sale. One notice, for 9 October, shows a sale at €0.80 and a buy-back at €1.825. That looks like a typing error, and we excluded it from any rate calculation.
2. The share count is about to be much larger
Most coverage quotes a market cap of €2.24bn on 520.94m shares. It leaves out the warrants. In September and October Eurohold sold 520.94m warrants at €0.01 each. Every two warrants buy three new shares at €1.25, for ten years.1,3 The prospectus spells out the result: up to 781.41m new shares, taking the total to 1,302.35m. A holder who doesn't take part falls to 40% of their previous stake.3
The 2:3 ratio is easy to miss, and it matters. At €4.30, all those shares would make an equity value of €5.6bn. If today's market cap is the right value for the company as it stands, adding the €977m of exercise cash and spreading it over 1.30bn shares gives a warrant-adjusted price of €2.47.
The warrant market itself disagrees with the share price. EUBGW closed at €2.80. Conversion at €4.30 is worth €4.58 a warrant, so the warrant trades 39% below that value. The price implies a share value of about €3.12. On 20 October, when 13.0m warrants traded at €0.235, the same calculation gave €1.41, almost exactly the share close.4 That gap opened in the last ten days. Part of it has an innocent explanation: warrants trade thinly and can only be exercised when the board calls a capital increase.3 It is still a clear signal that two linked instruments are saying different things.
Who holds them
The issue was a rights offering, so every shareholder could take part, and that matters for fairness. In practice Starcom took at least 391.7m warrants, or 75.2%, for about €3.9m.1 At €4.30 they have conversion value of about €1.8bn, or about €1.1bn at the warrant's own market price. Starcom also took 260.1m of the shares issued in June at €1.0226, a paper gain of about €850m.1 Separately, the October EGM approved warrants for staff and board members over 3% of capital at a €0.01 issue price and a €0.51 strike, worth about €59m at Friday's close if fully used.1
3. The valuation rests on earnings not yet reported
| At a share price of | €1.28 (15 Oct) | €1.83 (23 Oct) | €4.30 (30 Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap, basic shares | €667m | €953m | €2,240m |
| Enterprise value | €2,124m | €2,410m | €3,697m |
| EV / trailing electricity EBITDA (€151m) | 14.1× | 16.0× | 24.5× |
| P/E, trailing owners' profit (€52m) | 12.7× | 18.2× | 42.7× |
| Price / owners' book (€0.94 a share) | 1.4× | 2.0× | 4.6× |
The same business was on about 14× trailing electricity EBITDA at €1.28 and is on about 24× now. Romania's Electrica, the closest listed comparison, is on about 9×.10 Today's market cap is about 43× trailing owners' profit.
Solars Energy is the honest answer to all this, because its debt is in these numbers and its earnings are not. So how much would it need to earn? To bring EV down to 10× EBITDA, the group needs about €370m. At 8× it needs €462m. That means Solars and any growth must add €219m to €311m on top of €151m of trailing electricity EBITDA. The full 2025 group, insurance included, made about €193m. Even the official forecast for Solars, with every project built and counted at 100%, would take the group only to about €308m.
Eurohold has not yet reported any Solars earnings. The only official numbers are a forecast in the valuation commissioned ahead of the swap with Starcom, which assumes €80/MWh for solar, €180/MWh for battery discharge and all 1,005 MWp running from year one.1 The assets are large: about 487 MWp of solar and 377 MW / 894 MWh of storage were in operation in June, by our count of the H1 report.2 But Bulgarian battery capacity has gone from about 200 MWh to about 14 GWh in two years, and arbitrage margins may narrow as more batteries compete.9 The accounting is provisional too. Solars brought €1,013m of PP&E and €562m of intangibles onto the balance sheet, against a swap valued at €387–389m for 100% of the company.1,2 The €401m of minority interests is mostly new as well, and much of Solars' portfolio sits in partly owned structures.
4. Value has flowed through the controlling shareholder
The 2026 restructuring was a series of transactions between Eurohold and Starcom. Eurohold swapped its insurance group and a €29.1m receivable for Solars in a deal valued at €387–389m. It agreed to buy up to €80m of its own EMTN bonds from Starcom, along with Starcom's receivables from Solars and EIG. Payment on those purchases could be deferred for up to three years without interest.1 Valuation reports and shareholder approval were part of the process, and these terms may well be fair. Outsiders just can't judge the price of Solars without earnings, and the governance around them has narrowed.
The October EGM removed four Supervisory Board members, including Kustaa Aima and Louis Gabriel Roman, and elected Starcom Holding itself to the board.1 Two weeks earlier, Starcom had reported buying exactly 14,054,373 shares at 1.628. That is the same number KJK Fund II reported holding in June. The filing names no seller, so the link is our inference. The notice prints the price in leva, but other lines in it match the euro tape. If it was €1.628, the block priced about 27% above the market that day, a premium other holders were not offered.1
Eurohold has paid no dividend since 2019.2 The parent held €0.25m of cash at 30 September. Its €170m five-year facility, signed in June, carries a 13.5% rate in the H1 debt table, or about €23m a year, against a nine-month parent profit of €1.68m.2 Group operating cash flow was −€75.6m in H1, free cash flow −€124.5m, and bank and bond debt rose 59.3% to €1.196bn, partly by consolidating Solars. Fitch rates the holding company B.2
Eurohold's re-rating: the market is starting to price a different company
For ten months the stock sat near €1 while the group shed insurance, added a large solar and storage platform and pushed out its debt. The move to €4.30 is violent, but part of the re-rating has a real basis in the filings.
Eurohold Bulgaria's shares went from €1.28 on 15 October to €4.30 on 30 October, and took the SOFIX past its 2007 record.6 A move like that deserves suspicion, and a thin register amplifies every trade. But asking only whether the last 60% was justified misses the larger question: was €1.28 ever the right price?
Our view is that it undervalued what the group was becoming. At €1.28 the market was still pricing an indebted insurance-and-energy conglomerate with a Romanian problem. That company no longer exists. The optimistic case is that Eurohold has become a focused Bulgarian power group with a regulated core, a young renewables platform, long-dated debt and a route to global investors, and that the price is catching up with that change.
1. The old price gave Solars no credit
Before the rally, the numbers gave Solars no credit for earnings at all.
| At a share price of | €1.28 (15 Oct) | €1.83 (23 Oct) | €4.30 (30 Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap, basic shares | €667m | €953m | €2,240m |
| Enterprise value | €2,124m | €2,410m | €3,697m |
| EV / trailing electricity EBITDA (€151m) | 14.1× | 16.0× | 24.5× |
| P/E, trailing owners' profit (€52m) | 12.7× | 18.2× | 42.7× |
| Price / owners' book (€0.94 a share) | 1.4× | 2.0× | 4.6× |
At €1.28 investors paid about 13× trailing earnings and about 1.4× book for the country's largest electricity distributor and supplier, with Solars' debt counted in full and its earnings counted at zero. Then consider what insiders did. In June, Starcom put in most of €266.3m of cash at €1.0226 a share. In late September it was buying in the market at about €1.27 to €1.28 and took a 14.05m-share block at a reported 1.628. The notice prints these prices in leva, but they match the euro tape, which would put the block above the market.1 SLS Holding more than tripled its holding, from 16.6m shares in June to 52.4m by 21 October. These holders added to their stakes before the price moved.
2. A cleaner company
The biggest change is what left. Insurance gave Eurohold revenue, and it also gave it regulatory conflict, capital calls and the Euroins Romania collapse. The 2026 restructuring moved that exposure out. Euroins AD and Euroins Life passed to Starcom on 24 July, and Euroins Insurance Group and Euro-Finance are held for sale pending approvals.2,3
The balance sheet shows what was removed. At 30 June the held-for-sale businesses carried €731.4m of liabilities against €568.5m of assets, a net liability of about €163m.2 In exchange for that perimeter, Eurohold received 100% of Solars Energy, in a swap valued at €387–389m.1 Fitch removed Eurohold's rating from Negative Watch on 10 June, with a stable outlook.2 The holding-company discount that goes with a messy structure should narrow as this finishes.
3. The core franchise is earning
Eurohold bought CEZ's Bulgarian businesses for €335m in 2021.17 Today Electrohold has more than 3,000 employees and serves 3m customers.1 It distributes, supplies and trades power, and the distribution business gives the group a regulated base.
| Measure | Prior | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy revenue, H1 | €659.0m | €759.9m | +15.3% |
| Electricity group EBITDA (EEEC), H1 | €67.2m | €85.4m | +27.1% |
| Energy net profit, H1 | €36.5m | €40.2m | +10.0% |
| Profit before tax, H1 | €41.1m | €46.0m | +12.1% |
| Interest on loans and leases, H1 | €38.2m | €26.7m | −30.1% |
| Group EBITDA, FY2025 (BGN) | 339.6m | 378.4m | +11.4% |
| Operating cash flow / capex, FY | 1.02× | 2.42× | FY24 to FY25 |
Two H1 blemishes need context. Headline EBITDA fell 9.2% to €98.5m, with other operating costs rising to €24.4m from €5.6m, but the electricity group's own accounts show EBITDA up 27%. Operating cash flow was −€75.6m, but a €214.1m outflow in payables drove that swing, compared with +€138.1m a year earlier.2 Working-capital moves like that tend to reverse, and the next report will show whether this one does.
4. Solars Energy is on the balance sheet but not yet in earnings
This is the centre of the case. Eurohold's H1 results exclude Solars' revenue, profit and cash flow, because the acquisition was dated 30 June for accounting purposes. Its debt and assets are included.2,3 Every leverage ratio published so far therefore has the debt without the earnings, and the first consolidated report that includes Solars should show a different group.
| Solars Energy portfolio | Solar | Storage power | Storage energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| In operation | ≈487 MWp | ≈377 MW | ≈894 MWh |
| Under construction (Radomir, Loznitsa) | 286.5 MWp | ≈121 MW | ≈241 MWh |
The official valuation commissioned for the swap with Starcom goes further. It covers 1,005 MWp and 1,205 MWh, including 195 MWp in development, and forecasts first-year EBITDA of about €157m once everything runs.1 That is a forecast, not a result, but it is a far larger earnings base than anything now visible in the accounts.
The market context supports the platform. Bulgarian midday prices can fall below zero while evening prices reach about €250/MWh, and Electrohold itself estimates that more than 1 TWh of solar power went unused in 2025 for lack of storage.9 Few competitors can pair generation, storage, supply and trading under one roof. Electrohold Trade also has a route to market, with a 2.9 GWh storage and solar pool built with The Mobility House Energy.18 The risk is real: batteries are being added quickly and spreads may narrow. Early, large and integrated is still the best place to be in that race.
5. The balance sheet has been rebuilt
Headline debt rose 59.3% to €1.196bn because of Solars, and that number gets the attention. The structure improved at the same time.
- Maturities moved out. Only €54.0m was current at 30 June. The €500m energy bonds run to May 2030 at 6.5%, and the parent's €170m facility runs to June 2031.2
- Parent bonds retired. €80m of EMTNs are gone, and non-current parent bond debt fell from €70.0m at year-end to €3.0m by 30 September.2
- Equity jumped. Group equity rose to €889.3m from €200.7m, and owners' equity to €488.6m from €183.8m.2
The 13.5% rate on that parent facility is expensive, and it is the one that should be refinanced first. The warrants are the obvious way to do that.
The market usually treats warrants as pure dilution, and they are dilutive. They are also ten years of pre-agreed equity at €1.25. With the stock at €4.30, exercise is deep in the money, and the prospectus's stated priority for these funds is to reduce debt.3 The new shares come in above book value, which the prospectus calculates would raise standalone book per share by 22.35%.3 Asen Hristov has said the company will invite holders to convert.8 Eurohold has moved from needing capital to choosing when to take it.
6. Minorities won, and the door to Frankfurt opened
The October sequence matters more than its timing suggests. The EGM on 12 October tabled delisting from the public register. Not one share voted for it. Every non-Starcom holder present, 79.15m shares including SLS, the Budeshte pension funds and Arkont Invest, voted against. Starcom abstained on 354.9m shares rather than impose it.1 Kiril Boshov had said in August that minorities would be heard but that delisting was not an aim of the majority holders, and Hristov confirmed after the vote that Eurohold stays on the BSE.8
Fifteen days later the company went the other way entirely. On 28 October it began admitting all 520.94m shares to the Prime Standard, Frankfurt's highest segment, and on 29 October it applied to move to the BSE's EuroBridge segment, built with Deutsche Börse for simultaneous trading.1,7 Hristov expects the shares in Frankfurt within about a month.7 On 13 October the shares fell 17.6%, as the delisting vote failed and the new warrants began trading. Two weeks later the stock was heading for one of Europe's largest equity markets.
The backdrop helps. Bulgaria joined the euro in January, removing currency risk for euro investors. Schneider Electric's roughly €1.2bn offer for Shelly Group showed global strategic buyers are willing to pay for Bulgarian assets.19 The SOFIX is reported to be up nearly 90% in a year, and capital has also moved into Sopharma, Doverie and First Investment Bank, so Eurohold is not rising alone.6
Valuation: three methods, three scenarios
Every Eurohold debate ends up on one question: what is it worth? This section is the same in both our articles on the company, the critical one and the constructive one. The two theses read these numbers differently, but they use the same numbers. All of it is our own estimate, and none of it is a price target.
The short answer: our middle case comes to about €1.23 a share after warrants, close to where the stock traded before the rally. Our bull case, which uses the official valuer's forecast for Solars in full, is about €1.88, or €2.83 if you ignore the warrants. No method in any scenario reaches €4.30.
| Bear | Middle | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Discounted cash flow | €0.00 | €1.23 | €2.15 |
| 2. Peer multiples | €0.35 | €1.39 | €1.86 |
| 3. Sum of the parts on assets | €0.45 | €1.08 | €1.64 |
| Average, after warrants | €0.27 | €1.23 | €1.88 |
| Average, on today's 520.94m shares | €0.27 | €1.30 | €2.83 |
The starting point
| Input | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity EBITDA, trailing 12 months | €151m | EEEC group: FY2025 €132.7m + H1 2026 €85.4m − H1 2025 €67.2m |
| Net debt outside Solars | €582m | Group €1,056m at 30 Jun 2026, less €475m of Solars bank debt net of cash |
| Other minority interests | €17m | Book value. Solars' minorities are handled project by project |
| Shares today / after warrants | 521m / 1,302m | Warrants add 781.41m shares at €1.25, or €977m |
| Solars actual earnings | Not reported | First consolidated with the next group report |
| Solars official forecast | €157m EBITDA | Our sum of the valuer's first-year figures, with all 1,005 MWp built |
We start from the electricity group's own accounts, not the €98.5m headline H1 EBITDA. That headline includes items outside the electricity group, and it fell 9.2% while the group's own EBITDA rose 27%, from €67.2m to €85.4m.2 Doubling either half-year figure would overstate the run rate, since the electricity group earned €132.7m in all of 2025.
The official Solars valuation
Eurohold's AGM materials of 28 April 2026 include an independent valuation of Solars by Adikt Consult, commissioned by Eurohold ahead of its restructuring, with an effective date of 31 December 2025.1 Its €388.4m result sits inside the €387–389m range approved for the swap with Starcom. It is the only official source of Solars financials we have found, and it is a forecast, not reported results. It covers 1,005 MWp of solar and 1,205 MWh of storage, including 195 MWp still in development, and models all of it running from year one.
| Official valuation | Value |
|---|---|
| Solar output, per MWp a year | 1,500 MWh |
| Solar sale price / battery discharge price, per MWh | €80 / €180 |
| Year-one revenue, solar with co-located batteries | €150.6m |
| Year-one EBITDA, whole portfolio (our sum) | ≈€157m |
| Discount rate | 8.65% |
| Value of projects, 100% | €1,416.1m |
| Less project debt | €598.1m |
| Net value of projects, after project debt | €818.0m |
| Share belonging to Solars | €500.8m |
| Equity value, after €112.5m of related-party loans | €388.4m |
We checked these figures against the original report. The €388.4m, €500.8m, €818.0m and year-one EBITDA all tie to its tables, and its discount rate recalculates. Three points still matter. First, its two cash flow models total €1,380.0m, but its project table reaches €1,416.1m. The gap of about €36m is the 72 MWh Maglizh II battery, which is priced on top although the same 72 MWh is already inside the co-located model's 709 MWh. That looks like a double count, worth about €18m at Solars' share. Second, €74.8m of Solars' €500.8m comes from the three projects in development, and the report deducts only their debt. Third, the report dated Radomir and Loznitsa for operation in April 2026, while the H1 report published in August still lists both as under construction.
We use this forecast unchanged as our bull case, including that €36m. Rebuilding the model reproduced its revenue and EBITDA exactly and came within 1% of its value, so we can flex the same inputs for the lower cases. Eurohold's AGM approved buying those loans from Starcom, so we count the full €500.8m and treat the cost of buying them as part of group debt.
Scenario assumptions
| Bear | Middle | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity EBITDA, 2027 | €145m | €160m | €175m |
| Annual growth to 2036 | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% |
| Electricity discount rate | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| Solars portfolio | 810 MWp | 810 MWp | 1,005 MWp |
| Solar output, per MWp | 1,300 MWh | 1,400 MWh | 1,500 MWh |
| Solar sale price, per MWh | €50 | €66 | €80 |
| Battery discharge price, per MWh | €120 | €150 | €180 |
| Standalone storage, share of official margin | 60% | 85% | 100% |
| Solars discount rate | 9.50% | 8.65% | 8.65% |
| Solars EBITDA when built | €69m | €100m | €157m |
| Equity still to fund | €15m | €15m | €30m |
The middle and bear cases leave out the 195 MWp in development. The middle case's €66 solar price comes from Bulgarian baseload of about €103–109/MWh, less Aurora's expected 37% solar discount.14 Its €150 discharge price is the one the valuer itself uses for standalone batteries. The bear case tests lower prices, because negative-price hours are rising and Bulgaria now has about 4.8 GW of batteries.9,14 The equity still to fund is our estimate. The valuer's cash flows include almost no construction capex, so we deduct Solars' share of equity for unfinished projects.
For electricity, the discount rates sit between two markers. The energy regulator allows ERM Zapad a 7.0% return, Romania's ANRE allows 6.94%, and the energy bonds pay 6.5%.2,11,12 Bulgaria's 10-year yield was around 3.6% to 3.9% earlier this year, the latest we could find.15 The other marker is Eurohold's B rating and the 13.5% rate on the parent's €170m facility.2
Method 1: discounted cash flow
We value electricity over ten years plus a terminal value, with capex of €95m a year rising 2% annually and 10% tax. The terminal value is 56% to 70% of the electricity value. Solars follows the valuer's 20-year project cash flows with no terminal value, and project debt comes off before minorities take their share.
| Bear | Middle | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | €506m | €1,028m | €1,947m |
| Less net debt and minorities outside Solars | −€599m | −€599m | −€599m |
| Solars enterprise value, 100% | €568m | €880m | €1,416m |
| Less project debt | −€528m | −€528m | −€598m |
| Solars net value, 100% | €40m | €352m | €818m |
| Eurohold's share of that value | €26m | €225m | €501m |
| Less equity still to fund | −€15m | −€15m | −€30m |
| Equity value | −€82m | €639m | €1,819m |
| Per share, today's shares | €0.00 | €1.23 | €3.49 |
| Per share, after warrants | €0.00 | €1.23 | €2.15 |
Leverage makes this very sensitive. Moving the middle-case electricity discount rate between 7.5% and 9.5% gives a range of €0.93 to €1.40 a share. Solars' prices matter even more: in the bear case its project debt absorbs most of its value. On the valuer's Solars forecast with our middle electricity value, this method gives €1.73 on today's shares and €1.44 after warrants.
Method 2: comparison with regional peers
The closest listed company is Romania's Electrica. It is a distribution and supply group with a small, growing renewables arm, distribution makes 85% of EBITDA, and its regulated return is almost identical.11 Greece's PPC shows what the market pays for a utility building a large renewables business. Poland's Tauron marks the low end, with distribution alongside coal exposure.
| 30 Oct 2026 | EV / EBITDA | P/E | P/B | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electrica (Romania) | 9.0× | 16.1× | 2.4× | ≈1.4× |
| PPC (Greece) | 8.4× | 18.0× | 1.3× | 1.2× |
| Tauron (Poland) | 3.8× | 5.6× | 0.7× | 1.2× |
| Eurohold at €4.30 | 24.5× | 42.7× | 4.6× | 7.0× |
| Eurohold at €1.28 | 14.1× | 12.7× | 1.4× | 7.0× |
Peers carry about a fifth of Eurohold's leverage, and Electrica is rated BBB− against Eurohold's B, so we apply a multiple no higher than Electrica's: 6×, 8× and 9×. Solars is included at Eurohold's share of EBITDA and project debt, with all projects counted as finished.
| Bear | Middle | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity EBITDA, 2027 | €145m | €160m | €175m |
| Eurohold's share of Solars EBITDA | €44m | €64m | €96m |
| Multiple | 6× | 8× | 9× |
| Enterprise value | €1,134m | €1,790m | €2,442m |
| Less net debt, minorities, equity to fund | −€950m | −€950m | −€995m |
| Equity value | €184m | €839m | €1,447m |
| Per share, today's shares | €0.35 | €1.61 | €2.78 |
| Per share, after warrants | €0.35 | €1.39 | €1.86 |
Method 3: sum of the parts on assets
The third method ignores forecasts and values what the group owns, because each part has its own natural yardstick. This is useful for a group whose earnings don't yet include its largest asset.
- Distribution is valued on its regulated asset base. The Bulgarian regulator's July decision sets ERM Zapad's at €354.9m.12 Electrica trades at about 2.6× its RAB of RON 8.7bn as a group, or about 2.2× after allowing for its supply business.11 We use 1.2×, 1.6× and 2.2×, because a business earning its regulated return is worth about its RAB, and any premium depends on beating that return.
- Supply and trading is valued on earnings of about €66m, which is the €151m group figure less our €85m estimate for ERM Zapad. Margins here are thin and volatile, so we use 3×, 4× and 5×.
- Solars uses three asset values. Bear is the valuation report's own build cost for projects excluding development, about €825m. Middle is provisional PP&E in the H1 accounts. Bull adds provisional intangibles.1,2 We then take off €475m of net debt and apply Eurohold's share.
| Bear | Middle | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution | €426m | €568m | €781m |
| Supply and trading | €198m | €264m | €330m |
| Less net debt and minorities outside Solars | −€599m | −€599m | −€599m |
| Solars asset value, 100% | €825m | €1,013m | €1,574m |
| Eurohold's share after Solars net debt | €223m | €343m | €673m |
| Less equity still to fund | −€15m | −€15m | −€30m |
| Equity value | €233m | €561m | €1,155m |
| Per share, today's shares | €0.45 | €1.08 | €2.22 |
| Per share, after warrants | €0.45 | €1.08 | €1.64 |
What €4.30 would require
Run the model backwards. At 8× EBITDA, today's enterprise value of €3,697m needs about €462m of EBITDA. If the warrants convert at €4.30, the required figure is about €760m. Our bull case reaches €332m once every project is running, counting Solars at 100%. So the current price needs earnings well beyond even the official forecast, or a multiple far above regional peers.
Main limits of this valuation: Solars has reported no actual earnings, and the official forecast was commissioned by Eurohold ahead of a related-party deal. Its €80 solar price is above the level implied by Aurora, and we have not seen any signed contracts. Lower-case standalone storage is scaled from the official value. Eurohold's share of each project uses the valuer's stakes. Balances are at 30 June 2026. Staff warrants over 3% of capital, €5.2m of warrant proceeds and the arbitration claim against Romania are excluded. Peer figures come from a data aggregator and are not adjusted for accounting differences.
What the valuation means for this thesis
The middle case lands close to the pre-rally price, which suggests the market had the business about right at €1.28. The bull case takes the official Solars forecast in full, with electricity growing 4% a year at a 7.5% discount rate, and it still reaches only €1.88 after warrants. The gap between that and €4.30 is the part of the price we cannot explain from the record.
The filings describe a better company than the one that traded at €1.28. They do not yet describe one worth €4.30 a share, let alone on 1.3bn shares.
What would prove this thesis wrong
- A consolidated Q3 report with Solars in it that puts group run-rate EBITDA near €370m or above.
- Warrants exercised for cash and used to pay down debt, which would turn the dilution into real deleveraging at prices that make sense for new holders.
- A genuine float: Starcom selling down, or new institutions arriving through Frankfurt, so the price is tested by real volume.
- Operating cash flow turning positive once the €214m payables outflow from H1 is behind the group.
Until then, we would treat €4.30 as the price of the last small trade rather than a measure of what the company is worth.
Sources
- Eurohold Bulgaria AD regulatory filings via BSE/x3news: EGM minutes of 12 Oct 2026 (published 13 Oct), Art. 19 MAR and Art. 148b notices May–Oct 2026, warrant notices of 7/10 Aug, 6 and 13 Oct, EuroBridge notice of 29 Oct, restructuring notice of 25 Jun, H1 press release of 24 Aug, AGM materials of 28 Apr and 15 May including the Adikt Consult valuation of Solars Energy and its cash flow annex.
- Eurohold H1 2026 consolidated interim report (11 Aug 2026); nine-month 2026 standalone report (30 Oct 2026); 2025 annual reports (Apr 2026).
- Eurohold warrant prospectus, FSC, Sept 2026.
- CEEWire end-of-day price store (EUBG, EUBGW) and CEEWire company research notes, 30 Oct 2026.
- Infostock EUBG quote (session volume 376,762 on 30 Oct; our stored figure is 101,797).
- Mediamall on the SOFIX close; Ruse.news; Capital.
- Frankfurt listing announcement, 28 Oct; Investor.bg, Asen Hristov on timing.
- Investor.bg, Asen Hristov after the EGM; Investor.bg, Kiril Boshov.
- MR East, Bulgaria's battery boom, Aug 2026.
- Peer multiples at 30 Oct 2026, StockAnalysis: Electrica, PPC, Tauron.
- Electrica H1 2026 report; net debt, The Diplomat; Fitch rating notice; PPC H1 2026; Tauron H1 2026.
- Bulgarian energy regulator, decision Ц-13 of 1 Jul 2026.
- Virtu Energy, battery storage in Southeast Europe.
- Aurora Energy Research on Bulgaria; Virtu Energy on negative prices.
- Trading Economics; The Global Economy.
- Solar and storage build cost benchmark, 4P portfolio.
This article is for information only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and it makes no allegation of wrongdoing against any person or company. Figures come from company filings and public reports and may contain errors. Calculations are CEEWire's own. Readers should check the primary documents and make their own decisions. This analysis was created with the help of the CEEWire AI agent, working from the company's regulatory filings and structured data, and reviewed by the CEEWire Research Desk.
What you need to believe at €4.30
We don't think an honest optimist can call €4.30 cheap. The middle case comes to about €1.25, so the constructive view has to be a call on the bull column: Solars meeting the official forecast of about €157m once fully built, electricity growing 4% a year, and a 7.5% electricity discount rate as the group reaches Frankfurt investors and refinances its 13.5% debt.
On those assumptions the methods give €2.22 to €3.49 on today's shares, averaging €2.83. The warrant market lands in the same region: EUBGW at €2.80 implies a share price of about €3.12.4 After the warrants convert, the same bull case gives €1.64 to €2.15, and the cash cuts net debt to about €80m. So the optimistic reading comes in two parts. A re-rating from €1.28 toward €2 to €3 is defensible if Solars delivers, while €4.30 and beyond needs results well above our bull case.
The market spent ten months pricing the old Eurohold. The next consolidated report is the first real test of how much the new one is worth.
What would confirm it, and what would break it
- Confirms: Solars' first consolidated contribution, a rebound in electricity EBITDA, positive operating cash flow, a Frankfurt listing on schedule, and warrants exercised to repay the 13.5% facility.
- Breaks it: weak battery spreads, delays in Frankfurt, further related-party deals on opaque terms, or warrant exercise with proceeds going anywhere other than debt.
- The obvious risk: Starcom and SLS hold about 90.75% of the votes and fewer than 400,000 shares traded on Friday.1,5 Prices set on so little stock can fall as quickly as they rose, whatever the fundamentals.
- Not in our numbers: the arbitration of more than €500m against Romania.20 We could not confirm its status or who benefits after the insurance exit, so we give it no value.
Sources
- Eurohold Bulgaria AD regulatory filings via BSE/x3news: EGM minutes of 12 Oct 2026 (published 13 Oct), Art. 19 MAR and Art. 148b notices May–Oct 2026, warrant notices of 7/10 Aug, 6 and 13 Oct, EuroBridge notice of 29 Oct, restructuring notice of 25 Jun, H1 press release of 24 Aug, AGM materials of 28 Apr and 15 May including the Adikt Consult valuation of Solars Energy and its cash flow annex.
- Eurohold H1 2026 consolidated interim report (11 Aug 2026); nine-month 2026 standalone report (30 Oct 2026); 2025 annual reports (Apr 2026).
- Eurohold warrant prospectus, FSC, Sept 2026.
- CEEWire end-of-day price store (EUBG, EUBGW) and CEEWire company research notes, 30 Oct 2026.
- Infostock EUBG quote (session volume 376,762 on 30 Oct; our stored figure is 101,797).
- Mediamall on the SOFIX close; Ruse.news; Capital.
- Frankfurt listing announcement, 28 Oct; Investor.bg, Asen Hristov on timing.
- Investor.bg, Asen Hristov after the EGM; Investor.bg, Kiril Boshov.
- MR East, Bulgaria's battery boom, Aug 2026.
- Peer multiples at 30 Oct 2026, StockAnalysis: Electrica, PPC, Tauron.
- Electrica H1 2026 report; net debt, The Diplomat; Fitch rating notice; PPC H1 2026; Tauron H1 2026.
- Bulgarian energy regulator, decision Ц-13 of 1 Jul 2026.
- Virtu Energy, battery storage in Southeast Europe.
- Aurora Energy Research on Bulgaria; Virtu Energy on negative prices.
- Trading Economics; The Global Economy.
- Solar and storage build cost benchmark, 4P portfolio.
- CEZ, sale of Bulgarian assets to Eurohold for €335m.
- The Mobility House Energy, Electrohold reference.
- The Recursive, Schneider Electric offer for Shelly.
- Romania Insider, ICSID and the Eurohold arbitration, Oct 2025.
This article is for information only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and it makes no allegation of wrongdoing against any person or company. Figures come from company filings and public reports and may contain errors. Calculations are CEEWire's own. Readers should check the primary documents and make their own decisions. This analysis was created with the help of the CEEWire AI agent, working from the company's regulatory filings and structured data, and reviewed by the CEEWire Research Desk.
This analysis was created with the help of the CEEWire AI agent, working from Eurohold's regulatory filings and financial data. For more information about the product or to request a demo, reach out to [email protected].